NFL’s Best Bet to Hit the Under: Buffalo Bills
- No team mastered the art of hitting the under in 2019 like the Buffalo Bills, who stayed under the over/under 13 times in 17 games. However, is that a trend that will continue in 2020?
- In 2019, there was little doubt that the Bills were built to win with defense. They gave up just 16.2 points per game, which was the second-best in the NFL.
- While its defense excelled, the Bills did just enough on offense most weeks. The Buffalo offense did a lot more damage on the ground than through the air, keeping games low scoring. Until Josh Allen becomes a more competent passer, that won’t change.
- The X-factor for Buffalo this year is wide receiver Stefon Diggs, a major offseason acquisition. His impact and big-play ability will make the Bills better and could help to push their scores above the over/under set by oddsmakers.
All About Defense
The Bills had arguably the best defense in football last year. They were strong at all three levels and had a ton of youth, which bodes well for their defense in 2020. Buffalo conceded just 16.2 points per game in 2019, keeping 13 of their 16 opponents during the regular season to 21 points or less. Needless to say, that was the driving force in Buffalo being the kind of the under last season. To be one of the best NFL picks against the spread for a full season your defense has to come out and perform every game, and that’s exactly what the Bills defense did. Fans should expect more of the same from the Buffalo defense in 2020, although oddsmakers could adjust their over/under predictions knowing that the Bills are outstanding defensively.
Waiting on Josh
Another big factor in Buffalo’s propensity for hitting the under last year was quarterback Josh Allen. While nobody should doubt his arm talent and potential, Allen’s accuracy is still a problem, holding back the Buffalo offense. Luckily for the Bills, they had a productive rushing attack, with Allen contributing over 500 rushing yards. Until Allen proves that he’s more capable of carrying the Buffalo offense with his arm, the Bills are going to continue to play low-scoring games and hitting the under more times than not.
Can You Diggs It?
Outside of Allen, the biggest X-factor for the Buffalo offense is wide receiver Stefon Diggs, who the Bills acquired in an offseason trade. Diggs gives Buffalo a proven no. 1 receiver who will push John Brown and Cole Beasley into more complementary roles. Diggs is also a home run threat who can score touchdowns in a flash, especially with a quarterback like Allen who has elite arm strength and can push the ball down the field. If Allen and Diggs can quickly get on the same page, the Buffalo offense will have a chance to take a big step forward in 2020 and no longer be a virtual-lock to be below the over/under.
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