As we move ever closer to the kick-off of the 2020 NFL season, odds are starting to drop left and right on not only the games and season futures, but who’ll snatch up the coveted regular-season MVP award.
So, let’s look at the three guys who are most likely to end up as the League MVP.
Patrick Mahomes +350
The Super Bowl MVP is on the shortlist to win the regular-season MVP in 2020. Ok, not just the shortlist, he’s at the top of the list.
Let’s look at his basic stats first.
Last year Mahomes put up 4,031 yards and 26 touchdowns against just 5 interceptions. He also ran the ball for 218 yards and punched in a pair of TDs on his feet. Now the Chiefs will have one of the easier schedules this season. Using traditional methods, of previous season record, the Kansas City Chiefs will face an average of .500 teams. So, they are tied for the 18th hardest schedule. Even when we look at each team’s project wins/losses, the Chiefs still come out with a .500 opponent schedule. However, that is actually on the easier end when you look at that way, they are tied for 8th easiest with Steelers. So, I have no doubt that the Chiefs will basically smash through the AFC once again.
Lamar Jackson +600
If there are any current players that can get two league MVP awards in quick succession, it’s these two guys. And if there is anyone who can go back to back, it’s Lamar Jackson. QBs tend to be the only position to win MVP in consecutive seasons. Most recently, we saw Peyton Manning do it in Indianapolis in 2008 and 2009. Second-most recently we saw Peyton Manning do it in 2003 and 2004 – Jeez Peyton! Before that, we had Brett Favre go back to back in 1995 and 1996, and Joe Montana do it in 1989 and 1990.
So, recent history dictates that just because a player won the previous year, as long as he’s a QB, he has an equal shot of winning again.
Lamar Jackson has played amazing football. He went from what most people thought of as a glorified running back to a full-fledged MVP rock-tosser in one off-season. It’s incredible. If he has improved even a little bit more over this off-season, I really don’t see how he isn’t going to win. Especially since the Ravens have arguably the easiest schedule in the league.
When you go the traditional SoS route, the Ravens face an average schedule of .438. If you go against projected wins, it’s still just .494, tied for 3rd easiest. So, you have to consider that as a factor. If they truly are playing weaker teams, they are going to win and he’ll be able to showcase his skill more so than other guys on the list, like …
Russell Wilson +800
Russell Wilson is the most valuable player on the Seattle Seahawks. It’s not even something you can argue against. I found this Twitter highlight reel over on SBR and it shows the magic he brings to the field.
Wilson is third in line on the odds boards and a longer shot, but there is still quite a bit of value on taking him to win. The Hawks are tied for 13th with the traditional SoS and 11th when comparing their schedule against their opponents’ projected wins. So, plain and simple, Russell Wilson has a tougher schedule ahead of him than either Mahomes or Jackson. So, could that work in his favor? If he leads the Seahawks to a comparable amount of victories but through a tougher road, will he get the nod?
If you look at stats, he had just as good of a season as Mahomes last year. He completed 66.1 percent of his passes, passed for 4,110 yards, threw 31 touchdowns, and only pitched 5 INTs. He also ran for 342 yards and marched into the end-zone three times. So, many might think that’s actually better than Mahomes. The main difference was … schedule. The Seahawks played much tougher teams all season.
It’s going to be between these three guys, IMO. You can scratch everyone else off the board.
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