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How To Use Betting Odds To Win At Fantasy Sports

Patrick Mahomes is one of the best franchise QB’s in the NFL and he is a player that will dominate in 2019.

There are many tools players use to win at fantasy sports, such as player projections, coaching tendencies, and advanced stats. However, one area that many fantasy players fail to utilize enough is betting odds. 

Even those that do look at NFL betting odds often fail to interpret them correctly, or make the mistake of ignoring them later in the week, after they looked at early numbers.

Key Numbers to Pay Attention To in NFL Betting

If you’re an NFL bettor, there are two critical numbers that you want to be on the right side of; those are 3 and 7. These are vital numbers and are the margin of victory in almost 30 percent of games played. 

So, we when can place a bet on the right side of these numbers or see odds movement through these numbers – it’s essential to take notice.

For instance, if a team is a -2.5 favorite and their odds move to -3, and then to -3.5 – this is a significant line move. If you’re a sports bettor and you bet the -2.5, and you see this sort of movement, then your wager at -2.5 looks fantastic.

We can use odds movement like when setting our lineups in season-long or daily fantasy sports (DFS). If you have players on a team where the odds move from -2.5 to -3.5 or -6.5 to -7.5, you should take notice.

Moves in the point spread don’t directly correlate to fantasy production, but they are a factor when it comes to predicting a team performance, which certainly is related to player performance. Significant line movement can also be a deciding factor when toying between two similarly projected players. 

Analyzing Totals

If you’re not looking at game totals when filling out your fantasy roster – you’re making a big mistake. Game totals are the most predictive model when it comes to most accurately projecting the number of points in a game.

It should be evident that targeting high total games is an excellent way to get yourself some more fantasy production. There are regularly totals in the 50s and occasionally games that get into the 60s when it comes to game totals. 

One thing to look for is any major moves when it comes to totals. If a total moves several points in either direction, it’s time to take notice. Points scored directly relate to fantasy production because fewer touchdowns or field goals means fewer fantasy points for the players in that game.

Late Money = Smart Money

Betting sites don’t take a lot of money earlier in the week when it comes to NFL sides, totals, and moneylines, but as the week goes on, the amount they will accept gets a lot larger. They’re more confident in their lines, and early bets from sharp bettors have helped them become more confident in their offerings.

However, lines still move rapidly on Sunday mornings as more sharp money rolls into sportsbooks. These line moves are something to watch when you are setting your lineups on Sunday morning. Major moves frequently happen in the hours leading up to kickoff and watching these can you an edge when it comes to all things fantasy sports.

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NFL Draft Diamonds was created to assist the underdogs playing the sport. We call them diamonds in the rough. My name is Damond Talbot, I have worked extremely hard to help hundreds of small school players over the past several years, and will continue my mission. We have several contributors on this site, and if they contribute their name and contact will be in the piece above. You can email me at nfldraftdiamonds@gmail.com

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