Guru Nation Fantasy Football writers present their love/hate list. Which players are they targeting based on current ADP and situation? Which players are they steering clear from this season?
Kenny Stevens loves Tyler Lockett (WR – SEA)
Lockett finished last year as the WR16 in PPR and had unreal production with 57/965/10. Russell Wilson had a perfect passer rating targeting Lockett and now he’ll be moving into the slot more with the retirement of Baldwin. With the selection of WR DK Metcalf, some may worry that move cuts into Lockett’s volume but the draft capital shouldn’t scare you as the Seahawks passed on him twice for defensive players. Expect Lockett to end up with more receptions this year operating out of the slot with potential to move around the formation as a deep threat and crush his dynasty ADP of 103rd overall (WR43), per Fantasy Football Calculator.
Dalton Kates loves Tyler Boyd (WR – CIN)
Tyler Boyd is currently the most undervalued player in fantasy football. With an ADP of 6.03 according to Fantasy Football Calculator, he is being drafted as the 26th WR off the board. Last year Tyler Boyd broke out to a WR15 finish despite missing two games. Having A.J. Green back only helps Boyd out. Boyd’s full season pace is incredible as you can see below. That would have put him as the WR9 on the season ahead of prominent guys such as Mike Evans and Stefon Diggs. Add in a new head coach who was part of an offense that produced three top-18 WRs in PPG and it’s hard not to get about what Boyd can do this season. The masses are slow to react to Tyler Boyd as a legit WR in the NFL, but if last year was any indication he is not only here to stay, but carry owners to fantasy greatness.
Aaron Kagan loves Derrick Henry (RB – TEN)
At the beginning of his career, Derrick Henry was somewhat of a letdown to fantasy owners.Thankfully, Henry started to show why the Titans drafted him in Week 13 of 2018. He ranked second from weeks 13-17 in PPR points behind Christian McCaffrey and ahead of Saquon Barkley, Ezekiel Elliott, Joe Mixon and Alvin Kamara. I think the term may be “recency bias“ but Henry’s 2018 finish is definitely in many analysts’ minds heading into the 2019 season.
Kenny Stevens hates Leonard Fournette (RB – JAX)
Fournette is treading on dangerous ground in Jacksonville. Currently being drafted in startups as the RB14 (33 overall) his off the field issues, and multitude of injuries causes me to steer clear of him. His production is no less appealing, in 71% of his games Fournette averaged less than 4.0 YPC and hasn’t had a 100-yard rushing game since December 2017. At his current ADP, Fournette is a hard pass for me in all fantasy formats.
Dalton Kates hates Sony Michel (RB – NE)
After dominating in the post-season last year to the tune of 336 yards and six touchdowns in three games, Michel’s ADP is currently sitting at 4.05. While there is no denying his rushing upside, we are in the game for fantasy points and Michel’s lack of usage in the receiving game is a major concern. Over the past five seasons, only one RB has finished as an RB1 despite having less than 20 receptions. Ironically, the player to buck that trend and do that was LeGarrette Blount in 2016 with an RB8 finish, carrying the ball 299 times and scoring 18 times on the ground. That is likely going to be Michel’s ceiling this season as it is unlikely he finishes as an RB1. Without being a weapon in the receiving game you are opening to yourself to a very low floor each week in fantasy leagues. In eight of Michel’s 13 games last year he finished with single digit points. If he isn’t rushing for 100 yards or a TD then he is a major bust in your lineup. There is a lot of downside here at that ADP as we are betting on either an outlier season in the rushing department or a pretty sizeable increase in receiving production with no indication of that happening to see him outperform his ADP. I’ll be staying away at his current price in drafts.
Aaron Kagan hates Todd Gurley (RB – LA)
Throughout his career, Todd Gurley has not eclipsed more than 300 carries in a single season. This pales in comparison to some Hall of Famers who each have had nearly 400 carries in a single season at a point in their careers (Terrell Davis, Eric Dickerson, Walter Payton). His durability may be a concern but at just over 1,000 carries in his career at just 24 years old, why is Gurley’s knee arthritis already a growing concern? That negative medical sign causes me to avoid drafting Gurley at his ADP.