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Company projects the draftable QB’s QBR rating over their first four years

FiveThirtyEight.com put together a list of the NFL draft prospects QBR rating projected over a four-year term and Marcus Mariota comes out higher than James Winston.

The goal of the model is to predict a player’s Total Quarterback Rating over his first four years in the league, which is generally the length of his rookie contract. The main inputs into the projections were a player’s college stats (adjusted for defenses faced), combine /physical measurements, scout grades and play-type frequencies in college. After determining which factors mattered most, the model projected a player’s NFL success in four categories — on passing plays, on running plays, how many sacks he’s likely to take, and how many penalties he’s likely to incur — over his first four seasons. These play-type projections and how often each play is expected to occur were combined to produce the QBR projections. 

PLAYER FOUR-YEAR PROJECTED TOTAL QBR
Marcus Mariota 64.1
Jameis Winston 60.8
Brett Hundley 39.8
Bryce Petty 24.5
Garrett Grayson 17.0
Rakeem Cato 15.8
Cody Fajardo 12.0
Anthony Boone 10.2
Grant Hedrick 10.1
Blake Sims 9.7
Sean Mannion 9.1
Taylor Heinicke 8.8
Shane Carden 8.3
Brandon Bridge 5.3
Connor Halliday

NFL Draft Diamonds was created to assist the underdogs playing the sport. We call them diamonds in the rough. My name is Damond Talbot, I have worked extremely hard to help hundreds of small school players over the past several years, and will continue my mission. We have several contributors on this site, and if they contribute their name and contact will be in the piece above. You can email me at nfldraftdiamonds@gmail.com

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