FiveThirtyEight.com put together a list of the NFL draft prospects QBR rating projected over a four-year term and Marcus Mariota comes out higher than James Winston.
The goal of the model is to predict a player’s Total Quarterback Rating over his first four years in the league, which is generally the length of his rookie contract. The main inputs into the projections were a player’s college stats (adjusted for defenses faced), combine /physical measurements, scout grades and play-type frequencies in college. After determining which factors mattered most, the model projected a player’s NFL success in four categories — on passing plays, on running plays, how many sacks he’s likely to take, and how many penalties he’s likely to incur — over his first four seasons. These play-type projections and how often each play is expected to occur were combined to produce the QBR projections.
PLAYER | FOUR-YEAR PROJECTED TOTAL QBR |
---|---|
Marcus Mariota | 64.1 |
Jameis Winston | 60.8 |
Brett Hundley | 39.8 |
Bryce Petty | 24.5 |
Garrett Grayson | 17.0 |
Rakeem Cato | 15.8 |
Cody Fajardo | 12.0 |
Anthony Boone | 10.2 |
Grant Hedrick | 10.1 |
Blake Sims | 9.7 |
Sean Mannion | 9.1 |
Taylor Heinicke | 8.8 |
Shane Carden | 8.3 |
Brandon Bridge | 5.3 |
Connor Halliday |