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Getting Ready for the Combine; Must Read Statistics from @DraftMetrics

Here is the schedule for the 2016 NFL Scouting Combine

NFL Combine numbers broken down into stats

Getting Ready for the Combine

By Tony Villiotti of Draftmetrics

The NFL Combine has evolved from a virtually private workout into a major “made for television” event. There is constant chatter about how meaningless the Combine is, but it continues to gain popularity among fans. This year’s on-field workouts begin on March 3 with the bench press generally occurring the day prior to each position’s on-field workouts. The schedule for on-field activities is as follows:

March 3 Offensive line
March 4 Quarterbacks, wide receivers, tight ends
March 5 Defense line, linebackers
March 6 Defensive backs

There are two purposes for this article. The first is to present the historical standards for the Combine. This gives the television viewer a sense of what makes a good Combine performance for each drill. A fan can then make a judgment regarding how well a player performed and enhances the viewing experience. The second purpose is to review whether Combine performance is predictive of draft position.

Following are the seven drills for which I have accumulated historical information, principally from public information:

10 yard split in the 40 yard dash (10) Broad Jump (BJ)
40 Yard Dash (40) 20 yard shuttle (20)
Bench Press (BP) 3 – cone drill (3C)
Vertical Jump (VJ)  

The following table shows the average by drill over the past 10 Combines (2007-2016) for each playing position. This table shows averages for (1) all combine participants and (2) for only those participants that are drafted.

  All Participants Drafted Participants
  10 40 BP VJ BJ 20 3C 10 40 BP VJ BJ 20 3C
QB 1.66 4.83 NA 21 111 4.35 7.11 1.66 4.81 NA 31 111 4.32 7.12
SRB 1.56 4.52 19 35 119 4.24 7.02 1.56 4.48 19 35 120 4.21 6.98
LRB 1.58 4.57 21 35 118 4.31 7.00 1.57 4.55 21 35 118 4.29 7.02
WR 1.56 4.49 NA 35 121 4.24 6.93 1.55 4.47 NA 35 121 4.23 6.90
TE 1.62 4.70 22 33 116 4.39 7.13 1.63 4.71 22 33 116 4.38 7.12
C 1.80 5.24 27 27 101 4.67 7.72 1.79 5.22 27 27 101 4.65 7.65
G 1.82 5.30 26 27 100 4.81 7.86 1.80 5.25 28 27 101 4.75 7.77
T 1.80 5.23 25 28 103 4.77 7.81 1.79 5.20 25 28 104 4.74 7.76
SDE 1.62 4.75 23 34 117 4.40 7.10 1.61 4.71 24 34 118 4.36 7.16
LDE 1.67 4.86 25 32 113 4.49 7.32 1.66 4.82 25 32 114 4.41 7.30
DT 1.74 5.09 28 29 105 4.66 7.67 1.73 5.07 29 29 105 4.64 7.66
ILB 1.62 4.70 22 33 115 4.33 7.14 1.60 4.70 23 33 116 4.30 7.11
OLB 1.60 4.69 23 34 117 4.33 7.14 1.60 4.68 23 34 118 4.33 7.12
CB 1.55 4.49 NA 36 122 4.18 6.93 1.54 4.47 NA 36 122 4.17 6.92
S 1.56 4.56 17 35 120 4.24 7.00 1.55 4.53 17 35 121 4.21 6.97
                               
  • SRB denotes running backs that weigh less than 215 pounds
  • LRB denotes running backs that weigh 215 pounds or more
  • SDE denotes defensive ends that weight 260 pounds or less
  • LDE denotes defensive ends that weigh more than 260 pounds

The bench press is ignored for quarterbacks, wide receivers and corners as very few participants at those playing positions perform the bench. I have also excluded fullbacks since there are so few results in all drills.

The next table is essentially the same as the preceding one but compares the average results of early round draftees (rounds 1-3) to later round draftees (4-7).

  Rounds 1-3 Rounds 4-7
  10 40 BP VJ BJ 20 3C 10 40 BP VJ BJ 20 3C
QB 1.62 4.74 33 115 4.34 7.14 1.67 4.85 30 109 4.35 7.14
SRB 1.53 4.44 20 36 122 4.18 6.93 1.58 4.62 19 34 119 4.24 7.02
LRB 1.56 4.50 22 36 121 4.27 6.94 1.57 4.58 21 34 117 4.31 7.07
WR 1.55 4.45 36 123 4.24 6.90 1.55 4.48 35 120 4.23 6.90
TE 1.63 4.69 22 34 117 4.39 7.15 1.63 4.73 21 33 115 4.38 7.10
C 1.78 5.21 35 27 100 4.68 7.68 1.80 5.23 28 27 102 4.63 7.64
G 1.80 5.23 28 28 102 4.70 7.77 1.81 5.27 27 27 100 4.78 7.78
T 1.79 5.17 26 29 105 4.71 7.74 1.79 5.23 24 28 103 4.76 7.78
SDE 1.60 4.68 23 34 119 4.34 7.18 1.62 4.76 24 35 116 4.38 7.14
LDE 1.64 4.79 26 32 114 4.44 7.25 1.67 4.85 25 32 113 4.51 7.38
DT 1.73 5.07 29 29 105 4.65 7.66 1.73 5.08 28 29 104 4.65 7.67
ILB 1.59 4.67 23 34 117 4.28 7.11 1.61 4.72 22 33 116 4.32 7.10
OLB 1.59 4.66 23 35 120 4.33 7.10 1.61 4.69 23 34 116 4.32 7.13
CB 1.53 4.44 36 124 4.15 6.89 1.55 4.49 35 121 4.20 6.96
S 1.53 4.50 16 36 122 4.18 6.92 1.57 4.58 17 34 119 4.25 7.02
                               

These tables set the historical standard for the Combine. Using that information as the base, can it be shown that Combine results are predictive of draft position? A large difference between all participants and players selected in rounds 1-3 indicates a drill that might be significant for a particular playing position.

An analysis of all draftees versus those drafted in the first three rounds shows that, of 102 data points, 91 had better results among players drafted in the first three rounds versus all draftees. Despite that overwhelming disparity, the difference between the two groups of players was small.

Here is the distribution of the 91 data points when comparing draftees from round 1-3 and round 4-7:

0.0-0.99% 29 3.0-3.99% 8 6.0-6.99% 2
1.0-1.99% 37 4.0-4.99% 2 7.0-7.99% 2
2.0-2.99% 10 5.0-5.99% 1 Total 91

Over 70% of the “positive” data points showed a 2% or lower difference. So there is very little difference among all participants and those drafted in the first three rounds. A few observations:

  • In general, the Combine tells us very little at least when it comes to averages
  • The 10 yard split and 40 yard dash differences were inconsequential
  • The bench press probably showed the largest percentage difference but this often came down to a bench press or two
  • Aside from the bench press, a favorable vertical jump difference was the next highest, but those differences were small
  • The same could be said about the broad jump, but the differences were a shade smaller than even the vertical jump
  • Differences in both the 20 yard shuttle and the three-cone drill were the most inconsequential of all

Maybe it is more meaningful to look at the predictive aspect of a drill by measuring the results of the top Combine performers to see whether those participants are drafted early more frequently than others. This analysis does show significantly different results than the previous averages.

In this analysis, the percentage of participants who finished in the top 10% (plus ties) of each drill and drafted in rounds 1-3 was compared to the percentage of all other participants drafted in those rounds. To facilitate the identification of significant differences I developed and used an index that is reflected in the following table. As an example of the index, let us say that 40% of top 10 performers are drafted in the first three rounds and 20% of the rest of the participants are drafted in those rounds. This results in an index of 2.00, or 40% divided by 20%.

Here are the indices for each drill and each playing position.

  10 yd Split 40 yd dash Bench Vertical Jump Broad Jump 20 yd Shuttle 3-Cone Drill
QB 1.73 2.34 NA 1.69 2.02 1.46 1.66
SRB NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
LRB 1.71 2.03 1.25 1.52 2.02 1.46 1.66
WR 1.62 2.09 NA 1.66 1.67 1.24 0.84
TE 1.10 1.64 1.41 0.87 1.03 1.09 0.72
C 1.38 1.38 0.38 0.40 0.40 0.69 0.62
G 2.42 2.55 1.37 0.70 1.40 2.74 1.74
T 1.49 1.55 1.19 1.47 1.54 1.81 1.79
SDE 2.30 2.56 1.50 1.12 1.49 2.65 1.43
LDE 1.24 1.80 1.39 1.08 1.44 1.83 1.51
DT 1.07 1.49 1.50 1.47 1.34 0.74 1.43
ILB 3.41 1.93 0.78 2.31 1.93 1.50 1.01
OLB 1.20 1.74 0.98 2.10 1.85 0.52 1.54
CB 1.69 1.95 NA 1.58 1.82 1.24 1.20
S 2.90 2.28 0.64 1.95 1.17 1.53 1.87

Before proceeding with further explanation, it should be noted that no small running backs were drafted during the 10-year period. That is why SRB (or small running backs as described earlier) shows “NA” for each drill.

To get away from bombarding the reader with numbers, I assigned ratings (expressed as plus or minus) that might give a clearer picture of the frequency of top 10% performers being drafted in the first three rounds. Here is the scale I used:

Index Range Rating Index Range Rating
Less than .250 1.150-1.450 +
.250-.549 1.450-1.750 ++
.550-.849 More than 1.750 +++
.850-1.150 0    

I then applied the scale to the indices calculated earlier with the following results:

  10 yd Split 40 yd dash Bench Vertical Jump Broad Jump 20 yd Shuttle 3-Cone Drill Net
QB ++ +++ NA ++ +++ ++ ++ +14
SRB NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
LRB ++ +++ + ++ +++ + ++ +14
WR ++ +++ NA ++ ++ + + +11
TE 0 ++ + 0 0 0 +2
C + + -6
G +++ +++ + + +++ ++ +12
T ++ ++ + ++ ++ +++ +++ +15
SDE +++ +++ ++ 0 ++ +++ + +14
LDE + +++ + 0 + +++ ++ +11
DT 0 ++ ++ ++ + + +7
ILB +++ +++ +++ +++ ++ 0 +14
OLB + ++ 0 +++ +++ ++ +9
CB ++ +++ NA ++ +++ + + +12
S +++ +++ +++ + ++ +++ +14
All +25 +36 +6 +18 +23 +17 +18 +143

The net number is the net pluses (expressed as a positive) and minuses. This measures the likelihood, by drill, of top 10% performers being selected in the first three rounds as compared to all participants selected in those rounds.

A few observations regarding the top performers and their draft position:

  • Centers are the only playing position with a net negative result, indicating that Combine results are not important at the position
  • Tight ends showed a very minor positive correlation between Combine performance and draft results, principally due to the 40 yard dash
  • Defensive tackles and outside linebackers all showed positive results, but not much of one
  • Offensive tackles had the highest positive rating, followed closely by quarterbacks, large running backs (215 pounds or more), small defensive ends (260 pounds and lower), inside linebackers and safeties
  • All playing positions were positive in the “speed drills” (40 yard dash and the 10-yard split)
  • The bench press has the smallest correlation across all positions
  • The broad jump trailed only the speed drills in positive correlation

NFL Draft Diamonds 2017 NFL Draft Positional Rankings; We have WHAT?

NFL Draft Diamonds loves them some Brad Kaaya

Quarterback

  1. DeShaun Watson – Clemson
  2. Brad Kaaya – Miami
  3. Pat Mahomes – Texas Tech
  4. Mitch Trubisky – North Carolina
  5. Chad Kelly – Ole Miss/Davis Webb – California/Deshone Kizer – Notre Dame

Running Back

  1. Dalvin Cook – Florida State
  2. Leonard Fournette – LSU
  3. D’Onta Freeman – Texas
  4. Christian McCaffrey – Stanford
  5. James Conner – Pitt

Wide Receiver

  1. Corey Davis – Western Michigan
  2. Mike Williams – Clemson
  3. Cooper Kupp – Eastern Washington
  4. John Ross – Washington
  5. Dede Westbrook – Oklahoma

Tight End

  1. O.J. Howard – Alabama
  2. Evan Engram – Ole Miss
  3. David Njoku – Miami
  4. Jake Butt – Michigan
  5. Adam Shaheen – Ahsland

Offensive Tackle

  1. Cam Robinson – Alabama
  2. Ryan Ramczyk – Wisconsin
  3. Garrett Bolles – Utah
  4. Taylor Moton – Western Michigan
  5. Julien Davenport – Bucknell

Offensive Guard

  1. Forrest Lamp – Western Kentucky
  2. Dan Feeney – Indiana
  3. Dion Dawkins – Temple
  4. Dorian Johnson – Pitt
  5. Zach Banner – USC

Offensive Center

  1. Pat Elflein – Ohio State
  2. Ethan Pocic – LSU
  3. Jon Toth – Kentucky
  4. Kyle Fuller – Baylor
  5. Tyler Orlosky – West Virginia

Defensive End

  1. Myles Garrett – Texas A&M
  2. Derek Barnett – Tennessee
  3. Solomon Thomas – Stanford
  4. Taco Charlton – Michigan
  5. Carl Lawson – Auburn/Charles Harris – Mizzou

Defensive Tackle

  1. Jonathan Allen – Alabama
  2. Malik McDowell – Michigan State
  3. Carlos Watkins – Clemson
  4. Caleb Brantley – Florida
  5. Chris Wormley – Michigan

Inside Linebacker

  1. Reuben Foster – Alabama
  2. Jarrad Davis – Florida
  3. Raekwon McMillan – Ohio State
  4. Connor Harris – Lindenwood
  5. Kendell Beckwith – LSU

Outside Linebacker

  1. Ryan Anderson – Alabama
  2. Tim Williams – Alabama
  3. Zach Cunningham – Wake Forest
  4. Takkarist McKinley – UCLA
  5. Haason Reddick – Temple

Cornerback

  1. Teez Tabor – Florida
  2. Marshon Lattimore – Ohio State
  3. Sidney Jones – Washington
  4. Marlon Humphrey – Alabama
  5. Desmond King – Iowa/Cam Sutton – Tennessee

Free Safety

  1. Malik Hooker – Ohio State
  2. Budda Baker – Washington
  3. Marcus Maye – Florida
  4. Marcus Williams – Utah
  5. Rayshawn Jenkins – Miami

Strong Safety

  1. Jabrill Peppers – Michigan
  2. Jamal Adams – LSU
  3. Lorenzo Jerome – Saint Francis PA
  4. Eddie Jackson – Alabama
  5. Justin Evans – Texas A&M

Punter

  1. Austin Rehkow – Idaho
  2. Justin Vogel – Miami
  3. Kenny Allen – Michigan
  4. Tate Lewis – Southern Utah
  5. Eric Keena – North Texas

Kicker

  1. Zane Gonzalez – Arizona State
  2. Matt Davis – UNC Pembroke
  3. Jake Elliott – Memphis
  4. Adam Griffith – Alabama
  5. YoungHoe Koo – Georgia Southern

Mike Mayock has posted top 5 positional rankings for 2017 NFL Draft

Mike Mayock has Forrest Lamp over Cam Robinson

Mike Mayock is my favorite draft evaluator and he released his top 5 player positional rankings for the 2017 NFL Draft. What do you think?

Quarterback

1. DeShone Kizer, Notre Dame
2. Deshaun Watson, Clemson
3. Mitch Trubisky, North Carolina
4. Patrick Mahomes II, Texas Tech
5. Davis Webb, California

Running Back

1. Dalvin Cook, Florida State
2. Leonard Fournette, LSU
3. Christian McCaffrey, Stanford
4. Alvin Kamara, Tennessee
5. Joe Mixon, Oklahoma

Wide receiver

1. Corey Davis, Western Michigan
2. Mike Williams, Clemson
3. John Ross, Washington
4. Cooper Kupp, Eastern Washington
5. Zay Jones, East Carolina

Tight end

1. O.J. Howard, Alabama
2. David Njoku, Miami
3. Evan Engram, Ole Miss
4. Jake Butt, Michigan
5. Gerald Everett, South Alabama

Offensive tackle

1. Ryan Ramczyk, Wisconsin
2. Garett Bolles, Utah
3. Antonio Garcia, Troy
4. Roderick Johnson, Florida State
T-5. Taylor Moton, Western Michigan
T-5. Jermaine Eluemunor, Texas A&M

Interior OL

1. Forrest Lamp, Western Kentucky
2. Cam Robinson, Alabama
3. Dan Feeney, Indiana
4. Ethan Pocic, LSU
5. Dion Dawkins, Temple

Interior DL

1. Jonathan Allen, Alabama
2. Caleb Brantley, Florida
3. Malik McDowell, Michigan State
4. Larry Ogunjobi, Charlotte
5. Chris Wormley, Michigan

Edge rusher

1. Myles Garrett, Texas A&M
2. Tim Williams, Alabama
3. Derek Barnett, Tennessee
4. Solomon Thomas, Stanford
5. Takkarist McKinley, UCLA

Linebacker

1. Reuben Foster, Alabama
2. Haason Reddick, Temple
3. Zach Cunningham, Vanderbilt
4. Jarrad Davis, Florida
5. Alex Anzalone, Florida

Cornerback

1. Sidney Jones, Washington
2. Marshon Lattimore, Ohio State
3. Marlon Humphrey, Alabama
4. Teez Tabor, Florida
5. Tre’Davious White, LSU

Safety

1. Malik Hooker, Ohio State
2. Jamal Adams, LSU
3. Jabrill Peppers, Michigan
4. Budda Baker, Washington
5. Obi Melifonwu, Connecticut

Special exceptions

Note: This category is for players who are not ranked in the top 5 at their position but have special value elsewhere (special teams, for example).

1. Adoree’ Jackson, USC
2. Curtis Samuel, Ohio State
3. Chidobe Awuzie, Colorado
4. Desmond King, Iowa
5. Adam Shaheen, Ashland

NFL players have a busy week in the funny papers; Arrest News around the League

Free Agent

  • Former first round pick Trent Richardson was arrested Thursday night in Alabama on a misdemeanor domestic violence charge after a “domestic altercation” with a female, according to a release by the Hoover Police Department.
  • Responding to a complaint shortly after 8 p.m. Thursday, HPD officers arrived at the Hyatt Place Hotel and met Richardson and a female companion. After interviewing both parties, the officers determined the dispute started earlier in the evening at a Walmart and continued to the hotel.
  • Officers noticed the female had sustained physical injuries – “scratches and bruising” – to her face, and she was treated on the scene by required no further medical care.
  • Richardson was then transported to the Hoover City jail, where he remained Friday afternoon until he was able posted a $1,000 bond.

Patriots

  • Jonathan Roy of FOX 10 reports that Patriots free agent WR Michael Floyd plead guilty to one count of extreme DUI in Scottsdale City Court on Thursday. According to Roy, Floyd’s other six counts were dismissed. Floyd has reportedly been sentenced to 120 days in jail with 24 of them being served at Maricopa County Sheriff’s Office and the other 96 allowed to be served as home detention. Floyd will also have to perform 30 hours of community service and pay a fine of $5,115.99, according to NFL Trade Rumors.

Jets

  • Jets cornerback Darrelle Revis surrendered to Pittsburgh police on Friday night in connection with a street fight that left two men unconscious last weekend.
  • Revis arrived at the Pittsburgh Municipal Courts building around 7:20 p.m. He was accompanied by his attorney, Blaine Jones, and family members and did not speak to reporters gathered outside.
  • Revis was released on bond Friday night, CBS2’s Otis Livingston reported. His next court appearance is next Thursday.

Chargers

  • Chargers LT King Dunlap was arrested in Nashville on Thursday for suspicion of violating a protective order, according to NFL.com. According to the police report, officers responded to a domestic disturbance call made by a women identified as his girlfriend. It was determined that King’s girlfriend had a protective order placed against him and he was taken into custody and issued a $1,000 bond amount.

Super Bowl LI inactives

Falcons inactives:

Inactives for #SB51 :

  • Nick Williams
  • Terron Ward
  • Blidi Wreh-Wilson
  • Dashon Goldson 
  • Josh Keyes
  • Wes Schweitzer 
  • DJ Tialavea

Patriots Inactives:

  • Michael Floyd
  • LaAdrian Waddle
  • DJ Foster
  • Jacoby Brissett
  • Cyrus Jones
  • Justin Coleman
  • Jordan Richards
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